Absa Property Equity comment - Sep 16 - Fund Manager Comment21 Nov 2016
The fund delivered a total return of 9.73% for the first three quarters of 2016, outperforming the median manager by 2.91%.
The SA Listed property sector continued to retreat in the third quarter with a -0.7% total return performance driven by the negative impact of a stronger rand on stocks with rand hedge qualities. However, on a year to date basis, listed property has delivered an 8.8% total return outperforming Equities (4.8%) and Cash (5.4%) but underperforming Bonds (15%). Over the longer period, listed property has also proven to be one of the best asset classes, returning 17.7% p.a. over the last 10 years, beating the returns on Equities (12.7%), Bonds (8.5%) and Cash (7.3%).
Market commentary
The third quarter saw a number of new listings within the sector. The bias remained to offshore based funds with Echo Polska Properties "EPP", Global Trade Centre "GTC" and Hammerson listing on the JSE. With this listing Hammerson becomes the largest listed property stock on the JSE but will be excluded from the SAPY due to it having a secondary inward listing. Liberty also announced that it intends to list part of its property portfolio as a REIT on the JSE in December.
Consolidation within the sector remained unrelenting with a myriad of corporate actions during the quarter. The largest of which was Redefine's bid for Pivotal which requires Pivotal shareholder approval in coming months. Fortress announced a firm offer to acquire Lodestone while the Hospitality and Tsogo Sun deal was approved by the Competition Tribunal. The mechanics of the Synergy, Arrowhead, Vukile deal were announced and lastly there was the failed bid by Arrowhead to acquire Emira.
Although bond yields were volatile during the period the 10 year bond ended the quarter at 8.67%, 15 bps lower than three months prior as a rate hike at the September Fed meeting did not materialise.
Volatility remains with the market awaiting the Fed's next move, global growth remaining under question and continued domestic political instability. This volatility however provides us with opportunities to build up holdings in quality counters with strong distribution growth expectations.
As at the end of the third quarter of 2016, the listed property sector traded on a historic yield of 6% and a forward yield of 7%. The sector is expected to deliver between 8% and 9% growth over the next year. This growth against a weakening economic backdrop, political instability and low bond yields results in listed property remaining as an attractive investment choice.
We continue to position the fund in the short to minimise the impact of any potential macro events emanating from the changing U.S. Monetary and fiscal situation.
Absa Property Equity comment - Jun 16 - Fund Manager Comment28 Sep 2016
The fund delivered a total return of 8.92% for the first half of 2016, outperforming the median manager by 2% .
The SA Listed property sector recovered in the first quarter of 2016 from the sell-off in December 2015 post the "Nenegate" saga and delivered a decent 10.1% return but retreated in the second quarter with -0.4% total return. On a year to date basis, listed property has delivered a 9.62% total return , outperforming Equities (4.3%) and Cash (3.5%) but underperformed Bonds (11.2%) . This performance was on the back of better than expected earnings growth coupled with a rebound in long bond yields, which saw the sector maintain its premium rating relative to bonds. Over a longer period , listed property has also proven to be one of the best asset classes, returning 18.8% p.a. over the last 10 years, beating the returns on equities (12.6% p.a.), bonds (8.4% p.a.) and cash (7.3% p.a.)
As global market participants digest the change in U.S. Monetary policy, and the economic news points on the road through the rate hiking cycle, global markets are expected to be characterised by unprecedented volatility, which we welcome as it creates opportunities to build up holdings in highly rated stocks that usually appear expensive on a yield relative basis but have strong distribution growth opportunities.
As at the end of the first half of 2016, the listed property sector traded on an historic yield of6 % and a projected forward yield of 6.5%. The sector is expected to deliver between 8% and 9% growth over the next year, still making listed property one of the more attractive asset classes.
We continue to position the fund in the short term to minimise the impact of any potential macro events emanating from the changing U.S. Monetary and fiscal situation.
Absa Property Equity comment - Mar 16 - Fund Manager Comment18 May 2016
The fund delivered a total return of 7.99% for the first quarter of 2016, outperforming the median manager by 1.66%
The SA Listed property sector recovered in the first quarter of 2016 from the sell-off in December 2015 post the "Nenegate" saga and delivered a decent 10.1% return, outperforming Equities (3.9%), Bonds(6.6%) and Cash (1.7%). This performance was on the back of better than expected earnings growth coupled with a rebound in long bond yields, which saw the sector maintain its premium rating relative to bonds. Over a longer period, listed property has also proven to be one of the best asset classes, returning 16.4% p.a. over the last 10 years, beating the returns on equities (13.1% p.a.), bonds (7.5% p.a.) and cash (7.3% p.a.)
As global market participants digest the change in U.S. Monetary policy, and the economic news points on the road through the rate hiking cycle, global markets are expected to be characterised by unprecedented volatility, which we welcome as it creates opportunities to build up holdings in highly rated stocks that usually appear expensive on a yield relative basis but have strong distribution growth opportunities.
As at the end of the first quarter of 2016, the listed property sector traded on an historic yield of 5.8% and a projected forward yield of 6.4%. The sector is expected to deliver between 8% and 9% growth over the next year, still making listed property one of the more attractive asset classes.
We continue to position the fund in the short term to minimise the impact of any potential macro events emanating from the changing U.S. Monetary and fiscal situation.
Absa Property Equity comment - Dec 15 - Fund Manager Comment10 Mar 2016
The fund delivered a total return of 27.64% for the 2015 year , outperforming both the index and the median manager by 19.64% and 16.89%
Listed property delivered a decent 7.99% for the year, despite the December selloff on the back of political backlash caused by the change in finance ministers. The sector has outperformed Equities (5.13%), Bonds (-3.93%) and Cash(6.46%) in 2015. This performance was on the back of better than expected earnings growth coupled with a more positive outlook for earnings going forward, which saw the sector maintain its premium rating relative to bonds. Over a longer period , listed property has also proven to be one of the best asset classes, returning 17.5% p.a. over the last 10 years, beating the returns on equities (13.9% p.a.), bonds (7.7% p.a.) and cash (7.1% p.a.)
As global market participants digest the change in U.S. Monetary policy, and the economic news points on the road through the rate hiking cycle, global markets are expected to be characterised by unprecedented volatility, which we welcome as it creates opportunities to build up holdings in highly rated stocks that usually appear expensive on a yield relative basis but have strong distribution growth opportunities.
As at the end of the 2015, the listed property sector traded on an historic yield of 6.1% and a projected forward yield of 6.7%. The sector is expected to deliver between 8% and 9% growth over the next year, still making listed property one of the more attractive asset classes.
We continue to position the fund in the short term to minimise the impact of any potential macro events emanating from the changing U.S. Monetary and fiscal situation.