Allan Gray Money Market comment - Dec 22 - Fund Manager Comment23 Feb 2023
The 2022 calendar year has undeniably been one of meaningful financial
market upheaval, worsened by negative portfolio returns of a quantum that
many investors have only witnessed once or twice in their professional careers. The most widely quoted US equity index, the S&P 500, lost 18% of its value over the year, while many "popular" US technology shares fell in excess of a whopping 60% as investors washed their faces with a healthy dose of realism:
The price one pays for an asset matters. Meanwhile, traditionally "safe-haven" US Treasury bond prices fell by 12%, due to global central banks materially raising ultra-low interest rates to do battle with eye-wateringly elevated levels of inflation. Several highly speculative asset classes imploded spectacularly, as a tightening of central bank monetary supply saw outflows from the financial system, laying bare the ill-conceived risk frameworks and corrupt practices of several cryptocurrency exchanges and token providers.
In such environments, the adage 'cash is king' is often used to denote the idea that the decision to have taken refuge in money market and cash investments has been a wise and prudent choice - protecting the holder of cash from negative nominal returns and allowing them the flexibility to invest in equity or bond assets at depressed valuations, should their risk appetite allow.
Cash was certainly king in 2022, with the lazy US-dollar bank account beating both
US equity and fixed-rate bond returns. Similarly, the classic rand-denominated money market fund beat both JSE equity and rand-denominated bond index returns, even though neither of the cash investments mentioned kept up with the pace of their home-country inflation (which peaked at 9.1% in the US and 7.8% in South Africa in 2022).