Marriott Dividend Growth comment - Sep 03 - Fund Manager Comment22 Oct 2003
Distribution
The Sep 2003 quarterly distribution amounted to 16.2352 cents per unit, an increase from the second quarter's distribution of 16.0102 cpu. The fund only changed to paying quarterly distributions in the first quarter so comparisons with the previous year based on this quarter's distribution are not possible. Over the past three years, the Marriott Dividend Growth Fund has grown distributions by 15% per annum, slightly higher than Marriott's medium term expected growth rate of 12% per annum.
Future Income
The recovery of the rand has resulted in many companies showing foreign exchange losses, and it is principally for this reason that the All Share index is not expected to show any significant dividend growth this year - in fact, a small decline may occur if the rand remains at current levels. (The Dividend Growth Fund has not been affected to the same extent due to its much smaller exposure to commodity producers and other companies with significant offshore revenues, and is therefore still expected to grow its distribution by 10-12%). These foreign exchange translation losses mask an otherwise good performance by many financial and industrial companies. Inflation is falling and interest rates are following as the high real rates, sluggish global economy and recovering rand have probably led to a cyclical slowdown in South African economic growth. South Africa's long-term growth trend still looks positive, with productivity growing and signs of a tentative recovery in global growth appearing. The long-term investor should find equities attractive at these levels, as the after-tax income from an equity portfolio should overtake that available from other asset classes in a relatively short time. For private investors in the upper tax brackets the (tax exempt) dividend income available from many solid blue-chip companies already exceeds their after-tax return on cash, and this gap will increase as dividends grow and interest rates drop.
Capital
At current levels the equity market looks undervalued, both relative to bonds and its historical average. Capital growth should be driven both by increased earnings (and therefore dividends) and a potential rerating. It is currently possible to buy many of South Africa's leading companies on dividend yields in excess of 4%, with the prospect of earnings (and hence capital) growth of 10-12% over the next 3-5 years. This should result in total returns in excess of 15% per annum.
Marriott Dividend Growth comment - Jun 03 - Fund Manager Comment24 Jul 2003
Distribution
The June 2003 quarterly distribution amounted to 16.0102 cents per unit. The fund only changed to paying quarterly distributions in the first quarter so comparisons with the previous year and quarter based on this quarter's distribution are not possible. Over the past three years, the Marriott Dividend Growth Fund has grown distributions by 15% per annum, slightly higher than our medium term expected growth rate of 12% per annum.
Future Income
The recovery of the rand has resulted in many companies showing foreign exchange losses, and it is principally for this reason that the All Share index is not expected to show any significant dividend growth this year - in fact, a small decline may occur if the rand holds up. (The Dividend Growth Fund has not been affected to the same extent due to its much smaller exposure to commodity producers, and should therefore still grow its distribution by 10-12%). These foreign exchange translation losses mask an otherwise good performance by many financial and industrial companies. Inflation is falling and interest rates should follow as the high real rates and sluggish global economy have probably led to a cyclical slowdown in economic growth. The long-term investor should find equities attractive at these levels, as the after-tax income from an equity portfolio should overtake that available from other asset classes in a relatively short time.
Capital
At current levels the equity market looks undervalued, both relative to bonds and its historical average. Capital growth should be driven both by increased earnings (and therefore dividends) and a potential rerating. It is currently possible to buy South Africa's leading companies on dividend yields in excess of 4%, with the prospect of earnings (and hence capital) growth of 10-12% over the next 3-5 years. This should result in total returns in excess of 15% per annum.
Marriott Dividend Growth comment - Mar 03 - Fund Manager Comment16 May 2003
Distribution
The March 2003 quarterly distribution amounts to 14.3329 cents per unit. The fund now pays distributions quarterly and comparisons with the previous year and the previous quarter are therefore not possible. Over the past 3 years, the Marriott Dividend Growth Fund has grown distributions by 15% per annum, slightly higher than our medium-term expected growth rate of 12% per annum.
Future Income
Two variables will play a major role in determining the rate of future dividend growth from corporate South Africa. Consumer inflation, which peaked last year at 13%, is driving revenue, earnings and dividend growth at South African businesses while the strengthening currency, on the other hand, is driving down the foreign earnings of many of South Africa's large export-oriented companies and some of these companies may be forced to cut their dividends as their cash flows reduce in size. In light of the above, the Marriott Dividend Growth Fund is forecast to produce distribution growth of between 10% and 12% this year and maintain that level of growth in the medium-term.
Capital
With the rand strengthening to 15-month highs and the war in Iraq driving global equity prices lower, the JSE Securities Exchange finished the year on a negative note. However, the South African equity market currently offers investors the opportunity to buy South Africa's leading companies on dividend yields in excess of 4%, with the prospect of earnings (and hence capital) growth of between 10% and 12% a year over the next 3 to 5 years. This would translate into capital gains in excess of 15% per annum.
Marriott Dividend Growth comment - Dec 02 - Fund Manager Comment27 Jan 2003
Distribution
The December 2002 distribution amounts to 27.3222 cents per unit, bringing the distribution for the year to 55.0331 cents per unit, 20% higher than the fund's distribution in 2001. Over the same period, the All Share Industrial index experienced dividend growth of 18%. Over the past 3 years, the Marriott Dividend Growth Fund has grown distributions by 15% per annum, slightly higher than our medium-term expected growth rate of 12% per annum.
Future Income
Two variables will play a major role in determining the rate of future dividend growth from corporate South Africa. Consumer inflation, which peaked last year at 13%, is driving revenue, earnings and dividend growth at South African businesses while the strengthening currency, on the other hand, is driving down the foreign earnings of many of South Africa's large export-oriented companies and some of these companies may be forced to cut their dividends as their cash flows reduce in size. In light of the above, the Marriott Dividend Growth Fund is forecast to produce distribution growth of between 10% and 12% this year and maintain that level of growth in the medium-term.
Capital
With the rand strengthening to 15-month highs and the threat of war in the Middle East driving global equity prices lower, the JSE Securities Exchange finished the year on a negative note. However, the South African equity market currently offers investors the opportunity to buy South Africa's leading companies on dividend yields in excess of 3.5%, with the prospect of earnings (and hence capital) growth of between 10% and 12% a year over the next 3 to 5 years. This would translate into capital gains in excess of 15% per annum.