Marriott Global Real Estate comment - Sep 04 - Fund Manager Comment20 Oct 2004
Distribution
The September 2004 distribution amounts to 1.8378 cents per unit, a decrease of 20% over the previous quarters distribution. The underlying securities in the fund produced strong US dollar income growth, but the continued strength of the rand dragged down the distribution.
Future Income
Over the next 3 to 5 years, the fund is likely to deliver US dollar-based income growth of between 3% and 5% per annum. While there is a high degree of certainty attached to the fund manager's US dollar-based income forecasts, unpredictable and often significant fluctuations in the value of the rand relative to the dollar, euro and pound (the currencies in which the fund is predominantly invested) make forecasting rand-based distributions extremely difficult. Rand weakness will increase the rate of income growth, while rand strength will reduce the rate of income growth and, as was the case last year, even result in income declining.
Capital
The fund has experienced short term capital volatility over the past 18 months. During 2003 and the first quarter of 2004, the fund appreciated by more than 30%. This capital appreciation was driven by the securities in the fund moving from discounts to net asset value to premiums to net asset value of up to 15%. In February and March the fund manager's cautioned investors that short term capital declines may be experienced. During April and May the fund did experience capital declines as the values of the securities in the fund moved back in line with net asset values. Since June, the fund once again appreciated significantly. The fund manager's would caution investors that the underlying securities in the fund are trading at premiums of between in excess of 10% to net asset value. This may result in further short-term capital volatility. Based on the current income yield of 5.0% (pre-tax), an expected yield in 5 years time of between 5.8% and 6.2%, with income growth in US dollars of between 3% and 5% per annum, the fund manager's are forecasting total returns of between 4% and 8% per annum.
Marriott Global Real Estate comment - Jun 04 - Fund Manager Comment02 Aug 2004
Distribution
The June 2004 distribution amounts to 2.2902 cents per unit, an increase of more than 30% over the previous quarters distribution. The growth was achieved on the back of good US dollar income growth from the underlying investments as well as the receipt of a number of annual dividends from our European securities.
Future Income
Over the next 3 to 5 years, the fund is likely to deliver US dollar-based income growth of between 3% and 5% per annum. While there is a high degree of certainty attached to the funds US dollar-based income forecasts, unpredictable and often significant fluctuations in the value of the rand relative to the dollar, euro and pound (the currencies in which the fund is predominantly invested) make forecasting rand-based distributions extremely difficult. Rand weakness will increase the rate of income growth, while rand strength will reduce the rate of income growth and, as was the case last year, even result in income declining.
Capital
The fund has experienced short term capital volatility over the past 18 months. During 2003 and the first quarter of 2004, the fund appreciated by more than 30%. This capital appreciation was driven by the securities in the fund moving from discounts to net asset value to premiums to net asset value of up to 15%. In February and March we cautioned investors that short term capital declines may be experienced. During April and May the fund did experience capital declines as the values of the securities in the fund moved back in line with net asset values. In June, the fund recovered a large portion of the capital declines incurred in the preceding 2 months and we would once again caution investors that the underlying securities in the fund are trading at premiums of between 5% and 10% to net asset value. This may result in further short-term capital volatility. Based on the current income yield of 5.3% (pre-tax), and expected yield in 5 years time of between 5.8% and 6.2%, with income growth in US dollars of between 3% and 5% per annum, the fund manager's are forecasting total returns of between 6% and 9% per annum.
Marriott Global Real Estate comment - Mar 04 - Fund Manager Comment05 May 2004
Distribution
The March 2004 distribution amounts to 1.7271 cents per unit, an increase of 6% over the previous quarters distribution. The growth was achieved on the back of good US dollar income growth from the underlying investments as well as a weaker Rand (on average) during this quarter.
Future Income
Over the next 3 to 5 years, the fund is likely to deliver US dollar-based income growth of between 3% and 5% per annum. While there is a high degree of certainty attached to our US dollar-based income forecasts, unpredictable and often significant fluctuations in the value of the Rand relative to the Dollar, Euro and Pound (the currencies in which the fund is predominantly invested) make forecasting Rand-based distributions extremely difficult. Rand weakness will increase the rate of income growth, while Rand strength will reduce the rate of income growth and, as was the case last year, even result in income declining.
Capital
The fund has delivered strong capital growth in US dollars (in excess of 20%) during the course of 2003 and this trend has continued in the first 3 months of 2004. Currently, the listed real estate companies in the fund are trading at premiums to the value of their underlying property portfolios. While premiums to net asset value are regular features of the listed real estate market during times of global economic recovery, the current premiums to net asset value, at between 10% and 15%, are higher than normal. These valuations suggest that the listed real estate securities in our universe will deliver income growth in the order of 5% per annum over the next 5 years, a level that is at the very top end of our forecast range. An investor must be aware that capital volatility should be expected and short term capital losses may be experienced. Based on the current income yield of 5.5% (pre-tax), an expected yield in 5 years time of between 5.8% and 6.2% and income growth in US dollars of between 3% and 5% per annum, the fund is forecast to deliver total returns of between 6% and 10% (pre-tax) per annum in US dollars.
Marriott Global Real Estate comment - Dec 03 - Fund Manager Comment27 Jan 2004
Distribution
The December 2003 quarterly distribution amounts to 1.6207 cpu, bringing the total distribution for 2003 to 8.3003 cpu, a reduction of 8% over the 2002 distribution on the back of significant rand strength. Measured in US dollars, income grew by more than 5%, significantly outpacing global inflation.
Future Income
Over the next three to five years, the fund is likely to deliver US dollar-based income growth of between 3% and 5% per annum. While there is a high degree of certainty attached to the funds US dollar-based income forecasts, unpredictable and often significant fluctuations in the value of the rand relative to the dollar, euro and pound (the currencies in which the fund is predominantly invested) make forecasting rand-based distributions extremely difficult. Rand weakness will increase the rate of income growth, while rand strength will reduce the rate of income growth and as was the case last year, even result in income declining.
Capital
The fund has delivered strong capital growth in US dollars (in excess of 20%) during the course of 2003. Currently, the value of the listed real estate companies in the fund are trading at premiums to the value of their underlying property portfolios. While premiums to net asset value are regular features of the listed real estate market during times of global economic recovery, the current premiums to net asset value, at between 10% and 15%, are higher than normal. These valuations suggest that the listed real estate securities in our universe will deliver income growth in the order of 5% per annum over the next five years, a level that is at the very top end of the fund manager's forecast range. Based on the current income yield of 5.5% (pretax), an expected yield in five years time of between 5.8% and 6.2% and income growth in US dollars of between 3% and 5% per annum, the fund is forecast to deliver total returns of between 6% and 10% (pre-tax) per annum in US dollars.