Novare IP Worldwide Flexible FoF comment - Sep 12 - Fund Manager Comment29 Nov 2012
The domestic economic landscape was tainted by continued strike action from mine workers during the month which started to spill over to other sectors. Although the Lonmin strike was ended, management had to succumb to massive salary increase demands which set a dangerous president to wage negotiations at other companies. At month-end, Moody's cut South Africa's credit rating by one notch, citing the government's inability to deal with socio-economic stresses and economic problems as reasons for the move. The petrol price experienced its biggest monthly gain in more than 3 years when pump prices rose by 93 cents at the start of the month, putting disposable household expenditure under pressure.
The resources sector benefitted the most from the global stimulus measures, rising as much as 12% at one stage before retreating on the back of widening wild strikes at mines. The sector closed 5.7% higher for the month. It helped to push the FTSE/JSE All Share Index 1.6% higher during September and the Index experienced a strong quarterly gain of 7.3% for the third quarter. The financial sector ended the month flat while industrial shares lost 0.5%.
The Global financial markets gained on the back of the initial good news, but concerns mounted towards month-end as to whether Spain will request a bailout and economic data which surprised to the downside. The MSCI Global Equity Index gained 2.5% during the month, but developed market share performance was overshadowed by that of developing markets as the MSCI Emerging Market Index gained a massive 5.8%. European equity markets had a strong performance whilst the Japanese Nikkei Index underperformed relatively, even though the Japanese central bank also announced further stimulus measures. The Japanese measures were pale compared to the Fed's stimulus.
Novare IP Worldwide Flexible FoF comment - Jun 12 - Fund Manager Comment26 Jul 2012
The FTSE/JSE All Share Index declined by 3.6% during the month. The stock market was dragged lower by a 7.2% decline in resources shares, although both the industrial and financial sectors lost 2.2% and 1.1% respectively as well. Gold shares, after having had a torrid year, avoided the selling pressure and rose by 15.3%. Alongside the demise in the global economic outlook, the South African Reserve Bank's stance has become more dovish. Inflation figures for April surprised to the downside due to lower than expected food price inflation and headline inflation for the month printed at 6.1% year on year. Price pressures have been broadening, however.
Interest rate cut expectations grew during the month, anchoring bond yields against the global risk aversion storm. The All Bond Index closed flat for the month even though foreigners turned into net sellers of this asset class for the first time since November 2011. Listed property continued its strong performance and gained 0.6% during the month to take its twelve month return to 19.5%. The rand depreciated by 9.5% against the dollar to close at R8.50 against the greenback.
The failure of European officials to contain the sovereign debt crisis caused concerns over a Eurozone unravelling to escalate. Uncertainty grew further as socialist Francois Hollande won the French presidential elections, heralding a potential shift away from conservative austerity towards "growth". Spain's borrowing costs rose anew to unsustainable levels as the country is struggling to recapitalize its banking sector. At the same time, borrowing costs for the US and Germany fell to all-time lows. Data revealed that the US economy decelerated to 1.9% in the first quarter of the year while the Eurozone narrowly avoided recession due to stronger than expected growth from Germany.