Prudential Namibian Balanced comment - Sep 13 - Fund Manager Comment24 Dec 2013
The Fund returned 3.7% for September. The FTSE/JSE All Share (ALSI) gained 5.1% on a total return basis in September 2013. The All Bond Index gained 3.9% and the Inflation-Linked Bond Index gained 2.9%. Cash returned 0.4%. In September 2013, Small Caps (6.2%) outperformed Large Caps (5.1%) and Mid Caps (4.9%). The best-performing sectors were Household Goods (+21.8%), General Retailers (+10.5%) and Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology (+10.2%). The worst were Gold Mining (-5.8%), Automobiles & Parts (-5.7%) and Technology Hardware & Equipment (-3.1%).
The Rand strengthened 2.4% against the US Dollar and 0.3% against the Euro in September 2013. From a foreigner's perspective, the Rand's appreciation against the US Dollar in September further enhanced the performance of the ALSI (+7.6% in US Dollar terms) and Bonds (+6.4% in US Dollar terms).
The MSCI World index gained 5.0% on a total return basis in US Dollar terms in September 2013, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index gained 6.5%. The best-performing emerging market index from the selection of international equity indices in September 2013 was the MSCI Turkey (+12.8%), while the worst-performing was the MSCI China (+5.3%).
The NSX Overall Index added 6.1% on a total return basis in September compared to a 3.1% month on month increase in August. The NSX Local Index increased 4.0% month on month compared to a 1.0% month on month increase in August. Over a 12-month period the NSX Overall Index returned +14.4% against +9.6% for the Local Index. The IJG All Bond Index (including Corporate Bonds) gained 3.0% month on month in September after losing 0.5% month on month in August. Over 12-months the IJG All Bond Index is up 5.5%. The IJG Money Market Index (including NCD's) increased by 0.4% month on month in September after rising 0.5% month on month in August. Over 12-months the IJG Money Market Index increased by 5.4%.
Annual inflation as is measured by the Namibian Consumer Price Index (NCPI) rose to 6.0% year on year in August 2013, compared to 5.8% in July. The higher inflation was a result of the three heavy weights accelerating, which was partially offset by an ease in most of the smaller contributors. Annual inflation over the past twelve months averaged 6.4%, which is lower than the 6.5% average for 2012, however up from the 12 month average of 6.3% recorded in August 2012. The month on month numbers however slowed down, with the average increase in the price of the basket easing to 0.5% in August, due to a slower price increase in almost all the sub-groups, with the heavy weights like housing utilities prices easing to 1.0% from 1.7% in July and transport to 1.3% from 1.5% recorded previously. Thus, given the acceleration in the inflation rate despite the ease in monthly inflation tells us the increase is on account of more moderate numbers in the base period.
Bloomberg consensus forecast for SA CPI in 2013 is currently at 5.8%.
Prudential Namibian Balanced comment - Jun 13 - Fund Manager Comment13 Sep 2013
The Fund returned -3.7% for June. June was a very volatile month for us from a return perspective.
The FTSE/JSE All Share (ALSI) declined 5.70% on a total return basis in June. The All Bond Index declined 1.52% and the Inflation-Linked Bond Index declined 5.47%. Cash returned 0.43%. Mid Caps (-0.4%) outperformed Small Caps (-1.1%) and Large Caps (-6.7%). The best-performing sectors were Fixed Line Telecommunications (+11.4%), Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology (+6.8%) and Technology Hardware & Equipment (+4.8%). The worst were Gold Mining (-19.8%), General Mining (-15.2%) and Platinum Mining (-12.4%).
The Rand strengthened 2.1% against the US Dollar and 2.1% against the Euro in June. From a foreigner's perspective, the Rand's appreciation against the US Dollar in June offset to some extent the negative returns in local currency, ALSI (-3.7% in US Dollar terms) and Bonds (+0.5% in US Dollar terms). The MSCI World index declined 2.4% on a total return basis in US Dollar terms in June, while the MSCI Emerging Markets index declined 6.3%. The best-performing emerging market index from the selection of international equity indices in June was the MSCI South Africa (-1.9%).
The NSX Overall Index lost 7.17% on a total return basis in June compared to a 2.35% month on month increase in May. The NSX Local Index increased 1.25% month on month compared to a 2.22% month on month increase in May. Over a 12-month period the NSX Overall Index returned +2.71% against +34.77% for the Local Index.
The IJG All Bond Index (including Corporate Bonds) fell by 0.74% month on month in June after falling 2.28% month on month in May. Over 12-months the IJG All Bond Index is up 6.89%. The IJG Money Market Index (including NCD's) increased by 0.43% month on month in June after rising 0.45% month on month in May. Over 12-months the IJG Money Market Index increased by 5.52%.
Annual inflation as is measured by the Namibian Consumer Price Index (NCPI) remained unchanged at 6.1% year on year in May 2013, compared to 6.0% in May last year, reflecting a tug of war between heavy weights food (on the up) and transport (on the down). The month on month numbers also reflect a constant monthly inflation rate of 0.2% for both April and May 2013 for the average price of the basket, a slowdown from +0.4% in March. Annual inflation over the past twelve months averaged 6.4%, which is lower than the 6.5% averaged for 2012, however up from the 12 month average of 6.1% recorded in May 2012.
Prudential Namibian Balanced comment - Mar 13 - Fund Manager Comment21 May 2013
The Fund returned 2.0% for March. March was a mixed month for us from a return perspective.
It was a volatile month for world markets particularly as a result of what has been happening in Cyprus. On the equity side the JSE rose 1.2% over the month with Industrials and Financials up, but most Resource stocks fell over the month. Our overweight positions in Woolworths, Adcock (corporate action) and Old Mutual added value, as did our underweight positions in Kumba Iron Ore and Vodacom. This was offset somewhat by our overweight position in Lonmin and lack of exposure to Aspen and Shoprite.
The NSX Overall Index gained 0.16% on a total return basis in March compared to a 1.72% decrease in February. The NSX Local Index increased 4.03% compared to a 0.71% increase in February. Over a 12-month period the NSX Overall Index returned 12.22% against 29.76% for the Local Index.
The IJG All Bond Index (including Corporate Bonds) rose by 0.14% in March after rising 0.64% in February. Over 12-months the IJG All Bond Index is up 12.16%. The IJG Money Market Index (including NCD's) increased by 0.45% in March after rising 0.41% in February. Over 12-months the IJG Money Market Index increased by 5.63%.
Annual inflation as is measured by the Namibian Consumer Price Index (NCPI) fell to 6.2% year-on-year in February, down from 6.6% year-on-year in January. The month-on-month numbers reflect an increase, with the average price of the basket increasing 0.4% after a 1.6% increase in January. Annual inflation over the past twelve months averaged 6.4%, which is lower than the 6.5% 2012 average, however up from the 12 month average of 5.7% recorded in February 2012. Bloomberg consensus forecast for SA CPI in 2013 is currently at 5.6%.
During the month the Namibian Dollar weakened by 2.2% against the US Dollar, 0.3% against the Euro and 2.5% against the GBP. This added to the returns of the foreign component for our Namibian Dollar denominated funds. The MSCI World index gained 2.4% on a total return basis in US Dollar terms in March 2013, while the MSCI Emerging Markets index declined 1.9%.