Sesfikile BCI Property Comment - Dec. 19 - Fund Manager Comment28 Jan 2020
Listed property pulled lower in December (ALPI: -1.6%), taking the annual otal return for the calendar year into the red at -0.4%. The property sector was consistently out of facvour through the year as it almost systematically underperformed both bonds and wquities quarter-on-quarter.
Investors remained concerned with the growth outlook, ignoring the robust core earnings growth reported by heavyweights Redefine, Equities, Investec and Vukile, as well as steady bond yields and they stronger currency into year end.The sector is still somewhat tainted by the bad press in 2018 where aggressive finance structures were put under the microscope and forced to unwind to conform with a more prudent practive. The sector has come a long way to unwind unsustainable earnings from the distribution base and looks to adopt the SA RETIT's BEST PRACTICE RECOMMENDATION (BPR) document, which will be effecive as at 1 January 2020.
Ultimately investors remained risk averse with December. The results season was generally more upbeat relative to expectations; primarily from Redefine, Investec, Vukile and Equities, but this failed to inspire any real confidence. While bonds were initially weaker through the quarter, yields dropped sharply in December as an interim deal between the US and China, further gains in the gold price and improved demand for riskier emerging market debt all provided support. Th UK elections also delivered a market friendly outcome as a majority for the Conservatives resulted in a rally in Brithish assets and the sterling, although this was short-lived as the parliament oted to exted the "transition period" for Brexit steering the country toward a harder Brexit.
2020 will no doubt be another volatile year, ith global tensions and possible wars, be it trade or other. The global growth outlook is still muted and should see bond yields remain low and supportive to property prices. Locally we have the issue of Eskom and Moody's'however Eskom remains key as the root cause of the potential Moody's downgrade (which the market has started to come to terms with) amongst other tribulations. while we are unlikely to call all variables, our besst estimates have led us to a total return for the calendar year of circa 7.5% of whivh aroung 9% is distribution and the balces - 1.6% being a capital decline.