STANLIB Flexible Income comment - Sep 08 - Fund Manager Comment05 Nov 2008
Trades for the third quarter ending 30 September 2008 included the sale of shorter dated money market instruments to fund the purchase of longer dated bonds. Purchases of government paper consisted of RSA 2015, RSA 2018 and RSA 2026 paper. Purchases of parastatal paper consisted of Eskom paper. Purchases of corporate bonds included Barloworld and African Bank. Sales in corporate bonds consisted of ABSA, MTN, Standard Bank and Nedbank. The exposure to floating rate notes was reduced to extend the duration through the purchase of fixed rate paper to participate in the downward movement in market rates. Exposure to property was increased to benefit from the positive sentiment in the property market. No further exposure to preference shares was taken.
During the third quarter of 2008 the SARB MPC decided to leave the repo rate unchanged at the August meeting. Although the outlook for inflation remained negative in the short term, global events have significantly changed the outlook in the fixed interest markets. As the global credit crisis progress with the probability of world economic recession elevated, the main drivers of inflation is unwinding with the oil price receding from $147 per barrel to below $100 per barrel, a fall of 33.0%. Food prices, which have been an Achilles heel, are also set to collapse, a precursor to lower inflation. Bond yields retreated sharply, the RSA 2010 (R153) paper yield collapsed by 2.5% trading from a high of 11.92% at the beginning of July to close the quarter at 9.43%. The outlook for short term rates changed dramatically with the FRA curve pricing for aggressive rate cuts in the next year. Money market rates remained elevated in relation to bond yields due to the funding constraints in the banking sector, heightened by risk aversion. The 12 month NCD rate traded a high of 13.85% at the beginning of the quarter, ending the quarter at 12.50%. The bond market has seen good demand for duration with most Funds switching from cash to bonds. When the SARB MPC meets for their next interest rate meeting, we expect interest rates to be kept on hold, but a great possibility on an early cut exists. The global financial meltdown and expectations of slower global and local economic growth is overshadowing the negative inflation outlook. In this environment, with an expected lower adjustment in inflation next year makes bonds attractive.
STANLIB Flexible Income comment - Jun 08 - Fund Manager Comment11 Sep 2008
Trades for the second quarter ending 30 June 2008 included the purchase of longer dated money market assets due to attractive valuations against long bond yields. Sales of government paper consisted of RSA 2010 paper. Sales in corporate bonds consisted of ABSA, MTN and the paper from various securitisation issues. The exposure to floating rate notes was maintained and benefited the Fund in the current upward cycle in interest rates. Exposure to property was reduced to protect the Fund from the negative sentiment in the property market. No further exposure to preference shares was taken.
During the quarter the SARB MPC decided to increase the Repo rate at both meetings by 50 basis points to 12.00%, due to the CPIX numbers moving further above the upper band of the inflation target. The risks to inflation remain on the high side as inflation expectations continue to rise and general pricing power is rising due to sustained increases in commodity and energy prices. The bond and money markets are still pricing for higher interest rates in the future. The money market is pricing for rates to be increased, with the 12 month NCD trading from 12.25% at the beginning of the quarter, to end the quarter at 13.80%. The bond yield curve remained inverted, with the RSA 2010 R153 bond starting the quarter at 9.71% trading to a high of 11.77%, before closing the quarter at 11.75%. There is still good demand for government inflation linked paper, but corporate spreads are widening due to credit risk aversion trades globally. At the next SARB MPC meeting the committee will have to balance the risks between lower growth and higher inflation and decide if more policy action is required. Key to their decision will be the latest data release which show that the economy is slowing down, which may influence the ultimate rate decision.
STANLIB Flexible Income comment - Dec 07 - Fund Manager Comment13 Mar 2008
The STANLIB Flexible Income Fund returned 8.5% for the year ending 31 December 2007. The Fund is classified in the Fixed Interest Varied Specialist category.
Trades for the fourth quarter ending 31 December 2007 included the purchase of longer dated money market assets atattractive levels. Purchases of bonds included RSA 2010 paper. Purchases of corporate bonds consisted of the corporate issues of Investec and Sappi Manufacturing. Sales in corporate bonds consisted of Standard Bank and Investec. The exposure to floating rate notes was maintained. Exposure to property was increased due to attractive valuations against long bond yields. No further exposure to preference shares was taken.
During the quarter the SARB MPC decided to increase the Repo rate by100 basis points to 11.00%, after the CPIX numbers remained above the upper band of the inflation target. The risks to inflation remain on the high side as inflation expectations continue to rise and general pricing power are rising in the economy. The bond and money markets are still diverted in the outlook for interest rates. The money market pricing for higher rates, with the 12 month NCD trading from10.85% at the beginning of the fourth quarter, to end the quarter at 11.90%. The bond yield curve remained inverted, the RSA 2010 R153 bond starting the quarter at 8.95% trading to a high of 9.58%, before closing the quarter at 9.37%. The demand for short dated RSA bonds from the banking sector as liquid assets, placed a cap on rising bond yields. The outcome of the peak in inflation in 2008, will determine the probability of another rate hike from the SARB MPC.